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GrumpyGrizzly
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Posts: 340
Location: Bergen, Norway
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 Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2007 1:47 pm Post subject: Elfball Probabilites |
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A discussion in another thread (and the observation that 1D and 2D challenges didn't seem to be much different) led to my inner nerd running wild. Sorry about that 
This data assumes that a conditional success will not roll another conditional. While this is an error, it's about 1.8% worth of error and something that I can live with. If people out there can't, I can rework the data.
What I like about the dice system is that no matter how many dice you roll, you've got a reasonable chance of getting ShIMmed.
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Tarota
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Posts: 101
Location: Colorado
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:34 am Post subject: |
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Good thread idea. I've got the numbers out to two decimal places, if you want to include the possibility of infinite conditional successes, but I haven't figured out how to make a pretty table. Oh well.
I do like the reasonably high chance of a flop, regardless of skill. Some more fun facts:
* Expectation result for a single die is 0.4 successes. So don't feel too bad if you keep failing those two die challenges.
* Each extra success is about 20% less likely, for a surprisingly large section of the graph. Notable exceptions are 39% difference with 1 die between 1 and 2 successes, and 31% difference for the same interval with 2 dice. But other than that, the progression stays much flatter than I would have thought.
* You don't see the lower end of the bell curve until you roll 4 dice, and it isn't significant even with all 6. So you don't really hit a point where lowering your successes needed isn't worth it.
Yeah, I'm a nerd too...  |
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GrumpyGrizzly
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Posts: 340
Location: Bergen, Norway
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:06 am Post subject: |
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| Tarota wrote: | Good thread idea. I've got the numbers out to two decimal places, if you want to include the possibility of infinite conditional successes, but I haven't figured out how to make a pretty table. Oh well.
I do like the reasonably high chance of a flop, regardless of skill. Some more fun facts:
* Expectation result for a single die is 0.4 successes. So don't feel too bad if you keep failing those two die challenges.
* Each extra success is about 20% less likely, for a surprisingly large section of the graph. Notable exceptions are 39% difference with 1 die between 1 and 2 successes, and 31% difference for the same interval with 2 dice. But other than that, the progression stays much flatter than I would have thought.
* You don't see the lower end of the bell curve until you roll 4 dice, and it isn't significant even with all 6. So you don't really hit a point where lowering your successes needed isn't worth it.
Yeah, I'm a nerd too... |
Cool. I looked at it some. But it's defniitely not something I keep in my head, but it sure did make me take a much closer look at 1 and 2D dash challenges.
If you've got better numbers just send them my way in a PM and I'll make the table and put it up (credit of course where it belongs ) |
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Dark Lord
Joined: 23 May 2006
Posts: 2682
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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Does the fact that 4, 5 and 6 dice have lower odds of getting the successes needed bother anyone else or am I reading this wrong?
1 Success needed on 3 dice is 4.3% more likely than on 4?
That seems like a problem to me.
_________________
"I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody."
Bill Cosby |
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GalakStarscraper
The Big Man
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6176
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Dark Lord wrote: | | Does the fact that 4, 5 and 6 dice have lower odds of getting the successes needed bother anyone else or am I reading this wrong? |
Your are reading it wrong. That's the probability of getting extactly that many successes. To figure out the odds of getting 1 or more successes on any number of dice you have to add up the numbers starting at 1 success and then any higher number of successes as well.
In this case ... actually adding up the odds of flopping or zero successes and subtracting from 100% is easier.
For 3 dice odds of getting a flop or 0 successes is 13.2+19.4=32.6%
For 4 dice odds of getting a flop or 0 successes is 11.6+15.4=27.0%
So odds of 1 or more successes on 3 dice is 67.4% ... odds of it on 4 dice is 73%.
If are still speaking the other language than that mean
Getting one or more success with an Attribute of 3 is like a 3+ roll in the other game.
Getting one of more success with an Attribute of 4 is like a 4+ roll in the other game with a constant skill re-roll backer.
Galak |
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Dark Lord
Joined: 23 May 2006
Posts: 2682
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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Ah!
I should have known better than to look at numbers. Nasty little things that make little sense to me. pftoo! 
_________________
"I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody."
Bill Cosby |
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GrumpyGrizzly
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Posts: 340
Location: Bergen, Norway
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Dark Lord wrote: | Ah!
I should have known better than to look at numbers. Nasty little things that make little sense to me. pftoo! |
I will add a table with the 1+, 2+, etc for my own benefit as well as clarity.
What is deceptive is that for dash, and pickup a zero is just as good as a flop for ending the player action. While for a shove it is no big deal. Part of what I like about EB.
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